Trump inherits fragile ceasefire in Gaza

The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, which is expected to begin its first phase on Sunday, has brought relief to the international community but questions about whether the truce will hold — an issue that President-elect Trump will have to oversee when he takes office next week.

Israel and Hamas have agreed to a fragile three-stage deal to return hostages and prisoners and achieve a permanent ceasefire in Gaza.

Trump, who took credit for the ceasefire agreement, as did President Biden, appears to have wanted to take office with the conflict behind him, but will now have to manage the details of a tense agreement that could take months to resolve. He will also have to work closely with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the complex internal situation in Israel.

John Hanna, a senior fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), said Trump may have to take care to fully implement the plan.

“He now inherits the deal, which has yet to be done and implemented in all its various phases, and so I think he will now be invested in seeing this deal succeed throughout Phase 2,” Hannah said in a statement. Webinar on Thursday. “He will not want to see the resumption of this war under his authority.”

Trump could also be persuaded to show interest if it is tied to an incentive, such as Israel normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia, a process that was halted by the war and would be a major diplomatic success for his administration.

“If this turns into broader normalization, it will likely sustain interest,” said Osama Khalil, head of the international relations program at Syracuse University. “But if it doesn’t look like the Saudis are going to move forward, or the price is too high for them to put significant pressure on Netanyahu, you could see him losing interest.”

The outgoing Biden administration hopes Trump will continue the work done this week and in November, when a similarly fragile ceasefire was reached with Hamas’ ally Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Thursday that the Trump administration must ensure there is lasting peace in the region.

“For the next administration, I think it will be important to continue to show that there is one path, and what can be achieved by following that path, and then there is another path, which is perpetual violence and destruction and terror and despair for people.” He said in his recent press conference.

“This is a choice. I believe we have now done the work that can be used to build a strong foundation and move forward on this much more positive path.”

The deal was confirmed by Netanyahu’s full cabinet late Friday.

The agreement comes after 15 months of intense fighting between Israel and Hamas, sparked by deadly attacks by the Palestinian armed group on southern Israel that left about 1,200 people dead and about 250 hostages.

Since then, more than 46,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, according to the Health Ministry, and much of Gaza has been reduced to rubble. Palestinians in Gaza are also suffering from a humanitarian aid crisis.

Democrats, concerned about the toll of the war on Gaza, urged all parties to adhere to the agreement and are likely to try to pressure Trump to complete the agreement.

Representative Adam Smith (D-Wash.), ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee, expressed serious concerns about the holding of the ceasefire.

“I sincerely hope that happens,” he said. “The United States must work hard to make sure it does that.”

Trump’s Republican allies are equally wary about any ceasefire continuing.

“As Reagan said, trust but verify,” said Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), former chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. “There is some cautious optimism.”

The features of the ceasefire agreement reached this week were largely the same as those announced by Biden in May 2024, after months of haggling between Israel and Hamas over reaching another agreement after a brief truce in November 2023 led to the release of about 100 hostages.

After Trump won the election in early November, his team became directly involved in helping to reach another truce. Trump’s forceful speech appeared to get things moving, as he warned of “paying everything” if the hostages were not returned.

Trump sent his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkopf, to the region to assist in the ongoing negotiations in Doha, Qatar, along with Biden official Amos Hochstein. Experts interviewed for this story said Trump appears to be the dominant factor in getting the deal over the finish line, along with his willingness to exert influence that Biden never did.

But in the coming months, US-Israeli relations are likely to be tested, as Netanyahu considers implementing the deal in full against his far-right coalition. It has largely opposed implementation of the agreement and wants to destroy Hamas, the other war aim besides freeing the hostages.

Anel Shelin, a research fellow in the Middle East Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said Trump’s influence could be crucial in pressuring Netanyahu, whose country depends on US military aid, if he chooses to exercise that power.

She said: “What worries me… is that Trump’s interest in the agreement extends only to the inauguration period, and that it will not continue after Monday.” He added: “I hope I am wrong and that Trump is actually interested in reaching an agreement.” He has talked about possibly winning a Nobel Peace Prize for this, but for that, he will need a ceasefire to actually hold.

It is expected that about 94 hostages are still being held in Gaza. Under the agreement, the first phase will last about six weeks and will witness the return of 33 of the most vulnerable hostages, including women, children and the elderly, in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.

The second phase includes the release of the next batch of hostages, likely men and soldiers, along with a permanent end to the war. The ceasefire will hold if negotiations continue.

This second phase will be crucial and can easily be broken down during the talks. Experts are very pessimistic about the possibility of implementing the deal to the end.

Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official, said the agreement was “a fragile first step in a complex and volatile process,” anticipating tensions over the exchange of hostages and prisoners.

“Both sides are likely to face significant internal pressure to advance to the next phase, even as the risk of a return to hostilities remains high,” he said in an email. He added, “Israel and Hamas will maintain their military presence in Gaza throughout the first phase of the agreement, leaving the door open to a strong possibility of resuming fighting.”

The third phase will also be difficult, as Hamas will return the bodies of the deceased hostages in exchange for a post-war Gaza reconstruction plan.

The question of how to deal with Gaza after the war vexes Netanyahu, and he has repeatedly pledged to maintain indefinite security control over the coastal enclave.

Under the initial agreement, Israel is expected to withdraw from most parts of Gaza while retaining some buffer zones for security reasons. Israel is expected to control the vital Philadelphia Corridor on the Gaza-Egypt border and the Netzarim Corridor in central Gaza only during negotiations.

It is unclear what final security agreements will look like, including whether an international coalition is needed to maintain peace and govern Gaza. It is unclear who will undertake the reconstruction process in Gaza and pay its costs.

The ambiguity surrounding the ceasefire agreement has frustrated Israelis and Palestinians alike, who see the agreement reached as failing to address their most serious concerns.

Ahmed Fouad Al-Khatib, a Palestinian-American and senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, said the deal does nothing for Palestinian freedom and fails to create an effective plan for the day after Gaza that would rid it of Hamas. He said that it is difficult for the Palestinians in Gaza to secure a new government and political structure that includes the Palestinian Authority that governs the West Bank, with the help of an international coalition led by Arabs.

Al-Khatib said that he does not have much confidence in Trump, but he hopes “that there will be enough pressure not to completely forget the Gaza Strip and to continue participating.”

He said: “What worries me is that the Trump team will forget the issue of Gaza and move to regional aspects.” He added: “As long as this remains out of the headlines, and as long as the hostages are returned, it is quite possible that they will move beyond this matter, and this worries me greatly and greatly, not because they are unable to do something, but because we will not prioritize the Gaza Strip in this way.” .

Ruth Wasserman Land, a former Knesset member who lives in Israel, said the deal was not good because it allowed Hamas to continue threatening Israel. She said that at least there should be a buffer zone to protect Israeli citizens after the war.

Landy said there was no choice but to trust Trump.

He said he would help Israel. I put my complete trust in him, and I hope he will do what I feel is necessary. She said: He said that Hamas should not exist. “What they do remains to be seen, and I hope they do the right things.”