Why is it a bad idea to fine airlines for chronically late flights?

This month, the Department of Transportation fined JetBlue Airways $2 million for what it described as “numerous chronically delayed flights.” They penalized Frontier Airlines for the same reason. They’re also suing Southwest Airlines for chronically delayed flights, based on how some flights were unrealistically scheduled that inevitably led to delays.

Anyone who has sat in an airport gate area, or, worse yet, on a plane on the runway waiting to depart, understands the frustration felt by flight delays. But before attacking Jet Blue and other airlines over flight delays, it’s worth considering why flights are delayed and what can be done to better serve passengers.

The Department of Transportation defines a flight as chronically delayed if it is “moved at least 10 times a month and arrives more than 30 minutes late more than 50 percent of the time.” Cancellations are included as delays within this calculation.

Under this definition, a flight delay occurs when a flight does not arrive at its final destination within 30 minutes of its scheduled arrival. Airlines set their own schedules, which include when a flight departs and when it arrives. This includes the time it takes the taxi from the gate to the runway and the time it takes the taxi to its gate once it lands.

Airlines are incentivized to build some slack into their schedules. This gives each flight some buffer to accommodate any unexpected delays, whether on the ground or en route to its final destination. If airlines do not build enough buffer into a flight, they are vulnerable to a poor delay record. If they put too much into the schedule, planes will be chronically early, meaning they may need to wait on the runway until their arrival gates become available.

Since many airlines use a hub-and-spoke system, flights arriving at the hub must be scheduled to give passengers enough time to catch their connecting flights. Anyone who travels regularly knows that a delay at a flight center could mean a lost connection and an extra wait for the next flight.

How flights are scheduled certainly contributes to flight delays. However, there are so many things beyond airlines’ control that using the Department of Transportation’s metric of “chronically delayed flights” ignores the primary causes of flight delays.

The biggest cause of flight delays is weather. When inclement weather moves into an area, especially around a major airport, even the best schedules can be instantly upended. Departing and arriving flights are disrupted, throwing the schedule into chaos. Flight crews that are out of position must be reconfigured in real time. Because flight crews are only certified to fly on a specific type of aircraft, they cannot be easily transferred between Boeing and Airbus aircraft.

Then there are requirements and restrictions for the comfort of the flight crew. Pilots and first officers can only fly a certain number of hours per year, per month, over seven consecutive days, and during any given 24-hour period. Once their flight hour is up, flights must be canceled or replacement flight crews found. This becomes especially problematic in a month with many weather delays early in the month. If additional weather delays occur later in the same month, many flight crews may expire simultaneously, a “perfect storm” for flight delays and cancellations.

The “800-pound gorilla” surrounding the issue is air traffic control. Air traffic control delays have been well documented, especially in the Northeast Corridor. Airlines are at the mercy of the air traffic control system, and for good reason, as their primary role is the safety of every flight in the air system. When air traffic control determines the volume of arrivals and departures, airlines must adhere to its directives, even if it means not being able to adhere to flight schedules.

What all this means is that although airlines operate and schedule flights, there is so much beyond their control that punishing them for “chronic delay battles” is not an appropriate DOT response. It’s like buying size 6 dresses for a woman who only fits in a size 14. Just because you give her a smaller dress size doesn’t mean she can fit it, or that she will change her behavior to fit it.

To make airlines serve passengers better, the first step is to improve air traffic control so that it is less likely to cause flight delays and disruption. Safety should always be the highest priority for air traffic control; Allowing flights to operate in unsafe conditions is not the solution. However, providing the necessary resources and staff so as not to cause delays is within their scope of work.

Second, amend the definition of “chronically delayed flights” to include only “chronically delayed flights within the control of airlines.” This may include mechanical delays and delays due to poor scheduling practices (including the cause of a lawsuit against Southwest Airlines). How flights are scheduled across multiple airlines may also force too many flights into an airport’s airspace during a given period of time that the airport cannot accommodate even under ideal conditions.

Along these lines, provide a reference time for each trip between point A and point B. Use that as a criterion to determine if a flight is delayed, which AI algorithms can be created to provide. This means that each major airport is included in the flight delay calculation, and may also include weather and computer failure on each day around each airport in question. This provides an objective way to measure when external conditions cause delays. Otherwise, airline operations are at fault, regardless of the time allotted in airline flight schedules.

Such changes should be the beginning, not the end, of the discussion about flight delays. Using harsh penalties to discourage flight delays is wrong. With the Department of Transportation reassigned with a new Secretary, this is a good time to right-size airline scheduling and work toward a solution that is in the best interests of all passengers.

Sheldon Jacobson, Ph.D., is a professor of computer science in the Grainger College of Engineering at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. He used his expertise in risk-based analyzes to address problems in public policy.