No, the deficit repair is not possible. This is the reason.

Returning to the campaign’s campaign in November, Elon Musk and Donald Trump submitted the Ministry of Government efficiency as the next large solution to the bright and bureaucratic government spending. For many Americans, this makes the convincing stadium – the American debt today is very high that the interest payments alone cost the government for nearly a trillion dollars annually.

In theory, the braking in the national debt is the two parties. In practice, the process of selecting the location of expenses or taxes always leads to some degree of political reaction.

After a month of the procedure, how did Douge already have been able to reduce spending, and most importantly, how do you accumulate with the debt crisis waving on the horizon in America? (Hint: The numbers are not close.)

The debts of the United States today are more than 36 trillion dollars. But instead of Oge in the things that one can buy with this money (such as all the gold that has been mined on the ground four times), we must understand how to reduce debts. To do this, we need to understand where this debt comes from.

Over the past ten years, the United States government has spent a total of $ 61 trillion and brought the revenues of $ 45 trillion. This means on a general average, the government spent $ 6.1 trillion and $ 1.6 trillion of this spending on deficit.

Traditional wisdom will tell us that government spending appears completely different in the democrats and Republicans, but it is not. In fact, the deficit (and long -term debt approvals) during the Trump era were higher than the presidents under the presidents Joe Biden and President Barack Obama.

Regardless of the responsible party, federal spending is often formed of four familiar categories, which we can call the “big four”.

• Medicare and Medicaid: Nearly 23 percent of annual spending, or about $ 1.4 trillion.
• Social Security: Nearly 21 percent of annual spending, or $ 1.3 trillion.
• Defense: Nearly 12 percent of annual spending, or about 750 billion dollars.
• Interest payments: Nearly 11 percent of annual spending or about 700 billion dollars (note: 700 billion dollars is a historical average, and the current value is $ 1 trillion).

Collectively, these four expenses make up 67 percent of annual spending or $ 4.1 trillion out of a total of 6.1 trillion dollars on average.

Thus, with a total of $ 6.1 trillion dollars of spending, 4.1 trillion dollars on the “adults”, and an average deficit of 1.6 trillion dollars, it is clear that any dangerous plan by Dog must address the deficit either significantly reduce spending on medical care, Medicide, social security or defense significantly, or thickens greatly from another government program for the rescue almost 80 percent of Current revenue.

To date, Dog has not approached it.

Certainly it is difficult to say. Trump has protected Dog’s records from the general investigation until 2034, which prevents any verification of the discounts set by Dog or the methodology in which these decisions are taken. Thus, Doug’s self -reporting is our best scale of its activity so far.

Below is the full list of discounts in the budget made by Doug as of writing this article (by size):

• Federal employee purchase programDogs claims to save $ 37.5 billion of employment expenses. But the savings of this program are definitely exaggerated, if not a flat error. The rate of attrition in the federal government much exceeds the number of successful acquisitions under this program. This means, if not most of the employees who took the acquisition offer, they are likely to plan to leave their jobs regardless.
• The National Institute is not specified for the National Institute of Health4 billion dollars.
• Cancel the Dei’s initiatives and contracts: $ 2.6 billion. The largest affected entities are the Personnel Management Office, the American Agency for International Development and the Ministry of Education.
• HUD financing is allegedly in its place: A total of $ 1.9 billion.
• The contracts of the Ministry of Education have been canceled: 900 million dollars.

Finally, all the remaining discounts are formed by Dog are about two billion dollars.

Until these lines, these cuts are $ 49 billion. However, if we assume that some or all more than $ 37.5 billion of federal employees purchases can be attributed to attrition, this puts the real impact of federal spending between 21.5 billion dollars to $ 49 billion.

This puts a total of DOGE discounts at 1.25 percent to 3 percent of the budget deficit. Even with the survival of more than a year until the date of the completed completion of the American (250 anniversary), the current rate of spending discounts is not anywhere in achieving a balance between the federal budget and may fail a number of reasons.

First, the lack of the legal basis of many discounts in Doug means that Congress or courts must close many of them, and perhaps even cause a negative effect of budget discounts. Second, the fact that the current discounts in Duj are highly weighting towards limiting employees, as it may harm the public’s confidence in the government and affect the financial markets, causing low tax revenues.

But even if Dog takes these facts to the heart and greatly tries to address the United States’ deficit in the “big four”, this will not work.

MEDICARE and Medicaid and Social Security are mandatory government spending programs – this means that Trump and musk will have to go through Congress to cut them useful. Doug -trillion dollars cannot touch the budget due to similar mandatory spending and an additional dollar and an additional dollar is paid only in interest.

This leaves only one main spending category: defense. Even if Dog passes and finds a way to reach her goal of 8 percent discounts in defensive spending, it will remain less than $ 1 trillion of his goal.

Without major reforms on social security, health care, defense laws, or taxes, Dog’s discounts will remain more than just a political trick. The only way to process deficit is through the legislative procedure – something that fights both sides of the corridor for a long time.

Ryan Chapman is a researcher in the partial partial economy.