Early elections in Ukraine will only play in the hands of Putin

After the public decreased between President Trump and Ukrainian President Folodimir Zelinski last Friday, some of them in the United States renew calls to Ukraine to hold elections, even while fighting in the unjustified invasion of Russia.

Holding elections before the war ends will be unknown. In addition to practical challenges, such as counting refugees and protecting polling stations, this may offer to offer Ukraine security and Trump’s chances to seize a good peace deal.

This issue occupied the lead center in mid -February amid a fight that Trump described his Ukrainian counterpart as “a dictator without elections.” But the Trump administration’s demand that Ukraine will hold elections – according to what is now officially reported, according to Vice President JD Vance – precedes that dispute.

Trump’s envoy to Ukraine, retired Litanant General Keith Keel, has publicly called for elections in early February. According to the administration officials developed a plan to push Ukraine to hold elections as part of the initial ceasefire, followed by negotiations on a long -term peace agreement. Some members of Congress chanted the administration’s call to elections.

He was elected in 2019, and Zelinski’s state was already supposed to end last May. But after Russia launched its invasion on a large scale in 2022, Kiev imposed the martial law, which the Parliament of Ukraine voted 14 times to extend, last month with the “Nays”.

One of the effects of these extensions is to preserve Zelensky in his position, because the elections are not permitted during periods of martial law. Reasonably, the American allies quickly defended Zelinski against Trump Bodoside, where London said it was “fully reasonable to suspend the elections during the war period [United Kingdom] I did during World War II. “

Although legislators in Kiev widely support the postponement of the elections, the Kremlin insists that the Ukrainians must go to the polls. Putin has repeatedly offered a legal and legal analysis, falsely claiming that Zelinski is now illegal under the constitution of Ukraine.

Moscow argues that although Zelinski can participate in preliminary negotiations, it lacks the authority to sign a final deal, which makes the elections a pre -peace condition. It does not care that Russia itself does not hold free and fair elections.

Putin may see the elections as a way to replace the Ukrainian president with a more flexible alternative. Russia has completed its public arguments through secret information operations aimed at distorting Celesky. It has achieved a torrent of misleading or wrong assurances such as Elon Musk and Tucker Carlson than Moscow was on its own.

Ukraine is proud of its democracy and independence. For this reason, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians flooded the streets during the country’s protests in the country and the dignity revolution in 2013 and 2014. For this reason, many have made their lives to avoid the two subsequent Russia invasions.

However, there is a wide consensus in Ukraine against elections before the war ends. Zelensky and opposition leaders alike refers to the practical challenges that prevent the fully and safe elections.

Campaign gatherings, polling stations, election workers and foreign observers will be at risk of Russian air strikes. This type of threat was not a factor when America held the elections during the Civil War and the Second World War.

Then there is the arduous task of calculating the voices delivered by nearly 11 million Ukrainian refugees who live abroad or internally displaced, not to mention citizens who serve in the foreground, or those trapped in the occupied territories, or admiration in the cities of integrated front lines.

Ukrainian officials and activists estimate that once martial law is raised, preparations for the elections will take at least six months and possibly general. Among other things, Ukraine, which previously conducted a vote in the past, will have to build a safe system to reach the displaced citizens. Elections that have been dealt with poorly can cause more harm than assisting political legitimacy.

There are also strategic reasons.

“If we suspend the martial law, we will lose the army,” Zelinski warned, as the forces will return to their homes and will happen all the right to return to the home.

It was the leader of the Supreme opposition in Ukraine who recently warned that the return of electoral policy would undermine unity, while lifting martial law will also give intelligence services in Russia and the agents will increase the latitudes to conduct sabotage.

Ukraine’s ability to resist the Russian aggression will collapse along with its negotiating influence. Trump’s diplomatic efforts are likely to rise in smoke, as Putin will grow less ready to give up his maximum demand. If Russia appears victorious despite all the efforts of the West until now, Moscow may not only encourage you, but Beijing.

Ukraine will hold the elections as soon as it is safe. Zelinski also softened it recently, “You don’t have dinner in the morning … We cannot have dinner [yet]Because we need to live until evening. “

The ceasefire alone will not be a sufficient guarantee, as members of the Parliament’s defense committee noted. Ukraine will leave at risk at the possible event that Russia is violating the ceasefire and resumes offensive operations.

Currently, of course, the debate about the elections takes the back seat to the first -class issue of restoring relations between the United States, Ukraine, to the right track. If Washington really wants to end the war and helps Ukraine in maintaining its freedom, it must find a way to move forward with KYIV. It should then focus on creating a greater negotiation.

This means continuing military aid, as well as tightening sanctions on the Russian economy to shorten the amount of time that the war can maintain.

John Hardy is the deputy director of the Russian Program at the Defense Democrats Foundation.