Republicans want to cancel Biden’s climate heritage. Good luck with that.

Over the course of last month, President Trump used the stoppage of funding and the Ministry of Governmental efficiency in Elon Musk to systematically target climate initiatives by the federal government. But in order to go further, the Trump administration will have to resort to Congress to help. On the test: Hundreds of billions of dollars in clean energy tax credits from the Law on the Law on the Signature of the Department in the Biden Administration.

Trump and his Republican colleagues are planning to use the budget settlement process to create a draft law for the party, stuffed with Republican priorities, through Congress. But when it comes to canceling the law to reduce inflation, warning signs appear everywhere.

Only last month, in an unspecified hearing hall at Capitol Hill, something unexpected began to happen: Republicans in the House of Representatives speak in defense of the law to reduce inflation. Two years ago, MP Marianite Miller-Mix voted against the law, describing a draft law “full of party priorities”. But last month in the Roads and Means Committee in the House of Representatives, parts of the draft law were praised, indicating that they support most of the main clean energy tax initiatives.

Miller-Mix said: “The abolition of these tax credits prematurely would offer the private investments and the economic benefits it provides,” said Miller-Mix. She continued to urge her colleagues to “follow a studied approach” and “refine and improve” energy provisions in the law “in a way that enhances certainty in the market and continues to stimulate a comprehensive energy strategy.”

The law to reduce inflation was not a draft law from the two parties. Through Congress by the Democrats in Congress, through the Senate, he ascended a tie from Vice President Kamala Harris. A single Republican did not vote in any of the Chamber in favor of the draft law, which included approximately $ 369 billion in tax credits, loans and grants to help combat climate change. Trump rushed against the bill, describing him as “green fraud.”

So why is the situation from Republicans like Miller-Miks? Perhaps because over the past two years, more than three quarters of the private green energy investment pushed by the law to reduce inflation to the Republican -dominated Congress. This is more than 300 billion dollars to support good jobs, local tax revenues and strip parting parties. Therefore, it is not surprising that Republican defenders in the law represent many of the same provinces that have benefited more.

Using an analysis of inflation -reducing inflation law, competitiveness in the province and the date of voting, we have found 32 Republican representatives that we believe are likely to vote against the abolition of clean energy tax credits. With 32 potential authorities against a five -seat shave, the cancellation is hardly great.

Part of the law to reduce inflation may lie in its political durability. The law motivated more than $ 421 million in private capital expenditures, more than 75 percent of them went to the Republican Parliament regions.

Looking at MP David Valdou (R-Calif), a Republican representing the twenty-second circle of California. According to our study, the Valadao region has received more than $ 2.1 billion in private energy investment and manufacturing since the law has passed. In addition, his region tends to Democrats, making it an attractive opportunity for Democrats in 2026.

On August 6, 2024, 18 Republican members in the House of Representatives, including Valdu, signed a letter to Mike Johnson’s speaker (R-La), who is demanding to save most of the tax credits of clean energy, without which investors in their areas can experience economic turmoil. This seems to affect Johnson, who then repeated many occasions that he wants to take a “scalpel, not a hammer” of the law.

A new letter from a similar group on Sunday re -supported Johnson, this time with greater numbers. In the Naked Republican House of Representatives, this promises good for the tax credits to the law to reduce inflation.

This leaves the future of the American climate policy in a risky position, but barely governed. While the Trump administration was able to stop the clean -energy grants and loans by stopping the financing, it needs Congress to cancel the clean energy tax credits of the law to reduce inflation.

If Trump and the Republican leadership put these clean energy subsidies on the cutting bloc, thirty -three Republicans will find Republicans who are torn between their faith and the policy of pork barrel. These actors will need to make a decision between satisfying Trump and maintaining their provinces and the prospects for his re -election. In the end, the Republicans may save the achievement of Joe Biden’s legislative.

Noah Mihan is a climate economy researcher at Smith College of the Foundation and Environment at Oxford University. Stephen Lizak is a research director at the Smith College of the Foundation and Environment at Oxford University.