Trump’s talk of expansion puts world leaders on alert

President-elect Trump’s talk of regional expansion has alarmed world leaders at an already fraught time in global politics.

Trump last week doubled down on his proposals that the United States buy Greenland, take control of the Panama Canal and make Canada the “51st state.” He refused to rule out resorting to “military or economic” coercion against Greenland or the canal, and said he was open to using “economic force” against America’s neighbor to the north.

Leaders in targeted districts and elsewhere have objected to these suggestions, even as experts remain largely undecided about how much stock to put in Trump’s threats. Experts say this kind of guessing game is not good for global security as Trump approaches his second term.

“Uncertainty is bad in international affairs. You want to know that your allies are with you, and your enemies need to know that you are resolute in standing up to them,” said Peter Logue, a political science professor at George Washington University and a senior adviser to the FDA during the Obama administration. “You want to know, more or less, what the world will look like in the morning.”

Some have guessed that Trump is just trolling as he prepares to reclaim the White House later this month. Others said they believed the president-elect’s comments at his news conference in Florida last week signaled a potential shift away from jokes and toward a more serious goal of American territorial expansion, though he has not yet shared any details about his proposals.

“In diplomacy, language matters and signals matter. When you’re dealing with an eccentric person like Trump, it’s a problem, if you can’t distinguish between the insulting comic dog and actual American foreign policy,” said Duane Pratt, a political science professor at Mount Royal University in Washington. Calgary, Alberta, with a focus on Canadian foreign policy.

Whether Trump is serious or not, it obliges world leaders to respond as if he is.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau — whom Trump called a “governor” — responded by saying “there’s not much chance in hell” that Canada would become part of the United States. On Thursday, he joked to CNN that one of the defining characteristics of Canadians is that they are “not American” and dismissed the threats as a distraction from Trump’s proposed 25 percent tariffs.

Canadian Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc also said Thursday that the “51st State” remarks were a way for Trump to “sow confusion, provoke people, and create chaos, knowing that will never happen.”

“From a Canadian perspective, the threat of tariffs is real. It’s not trolling. The governor of Canada, 51st state, annexation — that’s trolling,” Pratt said. “But when you have this exaggerated language at the same time with other countries, “It’s a little more complicated.”

Pratt said that after Trump expressed openness to potential military force in Greenland or the Panama Canal, leaders may have a lot to worry about. “Whether it’s trolling [or not]“They have to take this seriously.”

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen confirmed that Greenland, where Donald Trump Jr. stopped on a visit last week, “is not for sale and will not be in the future.” Greenlandic Prime Minister Múte B. Egede announced on Friday that the Arctic region is “dedicated to the people of Greenland.”

Panama’s Foreign Minister, Javier Martinez Acha, said earlier this week that “the only hands running the canal are Panamanian hands, and that is what it will remain,” as the BBC reported.

And it’s not just the countries Trump mentioned that have stepped up to respond, though some are questioning the next president’s possible follow-up.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said on Thursday that Trump’s statements were more of a message to other global players than a real plan to acquire territory.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Wednesday that during a discussion with several European leaders and the President of the European Council, there was “a kind of lack of understanding” about the comments coming from the United States. Although he did not mention Trump by name, Schulz stressed that force should not be used to move the border.

“This is the fundamental problem with being President of the United States of America; It’s that people have to take your word. They may not believe that you have the courage to do something. They may not think you’re trustworthy, for example, after all. But they have to take these things seriously, said Daniel Nixon, a professor of government at Georgetown University and its School of Foreign Service.

Regardless of what happens next, Trump’s comments have heightened focus on the strategic importance of Greenland, an autonomous Arctic island controlled by Denmark, amid tensions with Russia and China.

“You’re asking me if I think the United States will invade Greenland? The answer is no. Have we entered an era of survival of the fittest? The answer is yes.”

The melting ice opens new routes through the Arctic, and Trump said the United States needs Greenland “for national security purposes,” questioning Denmark’s claim to it.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said of Trump’s comments on Friday, according to what Reuters reported, that Russia, which is approaching the three-year anniversary of its invasion of Ukraine, is “closely monitoring the dramatic development of the situation.” Moscow also expressed its strategic interest in the region.

Regarding the Panama Canal, Trump claimed that the main shipping lane is under China’s control, although the canal authority disputed this assertion. Trump criticized former President Carter over the 1977 deal to transfer control of the canal, which was built by the United States.

Logue speculated that there may not be any real clarity soon on what Trump means by expansion talks.

“Trump has a way of saying, ‘If things work out, that’s what I planned all along,’ and if they don’t, I was kidding all along,” Logue said.

Some local voices appear to be listening to Trump. Democratic Sen. John Fetterman (Pa.) compared the acquisition of Greenland to the Louisiana Purchase — and although he condemned its forceful seizure, Fetterman said it would be a “responsible conversation” to discuss the acquisition. Republican Rep. Brandon Gill (Texas) said the three targeted districts should be “respected” by Trump’s ambitions.

Still more global The numbers approach the situation with some lightness.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford appeared to attack Trump this week with a joking “counter-offer” to buy Alaska and Minnesota from the United States.

After Trump announced that he hoped to rename the Gulf of Mexico as “America’s Gulf,” Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum joked that North America should be renamed “Mexican America.”

Trump seems to believe that “if he’s unpredictable and might do something crazy,” that gives him strategic advantages, raising fears that might lead to concessions and cultivating the element of surprise, Nixon said, but too much unpredictability “may be… “Very dangerous.” “

We have built a very powerful system of global influence and control around these partnerships and alliances that relies on the idea that there is some predictability of U.S. behavior. “An alliance with the United States does not make you vulnerable to exploitation, or that you can expect that the United States will attack you or seize your territory on a whim,” Nixon said.