Who’s next for Democrats?

On his way out the door, former President Joe Biden seemed intent on causing Democrats as much trouble as possible. Worse than the pardon and the cynicism about being forced off the ticket, is Biden’s threat to remain involved in politics.

But that’s the one thing Democrats don’t have to worry about. Biden became completely irrelevant at noon on Inauguration Day. The only people who want Biden in the spotlight now are Republicans.

As painful as it is to watch President Trump return to the White House, the reckoning for Democrats will be worse. The party faces a toxic mix of angry activists, aging leaders, still-potent identity politics, and a nasty divide among its elites. They are stuck with Kamala Harris as their de facto leader.

It is difficult to overstate the extent of the damage Biden caused in his final moments. He single-handedly destroyed one of the left’s main talking points about Trump and Republicans, which is that they have no respect for the law. His random pardon included a judge who collected bribes to imprison dozens of children. It also included the perpetrator of the largest municipal fraud in American history.

His appearance, a mass pardon of his family members for unknown crimes and senior political figures, drew condemnation from his party.

Democrats are left to re-prosecute the January 6, 2021 Capitol riot as they air their “Trump is a liar” talking point and express general disgust at his moral failings. Unfortunately for them, their side has proven itself involved in dishonesty and corruption. Since the public does not make its judgment after carefully weighing the various lies, the Democrats are stuck in a dead end with their hypocritical moral campaign.

In addition, Democrats are hamstrung by identity politics that has become increasingly out of favor. The problem is not that they support DEI, but that identity politics will continue to exclude Democratic candidates who could have won in 2028.

Is it required that the next candidate be a woman or a minority? How many activists would demand someone from their tribe? With Trump not on the ballot, it may not be uptake to support the winner, and even if that winner is a white man, it may not be an option.

In the middle of this vortex stands Kamala Harris. Unfortunately for Democrats, Harris is the definition of a mediocre politician. Like a zombie company, it is respectable enough to survive but will never achieve success. All this is false hope and a constant burning of capital.

Over the next three years, Harris will be buoyed by name recognition, identity politics, and empathy. She can get publicity anytime she wants. That means she will be the Democratic poll leader until the 2028 primaries start. Unless she makes it through the race or decides she’d rather run for governor of California (which would be a clear sign of insanity), Harris will be the front-runner and leader of the Democratic Party.

Fortunately for the DEI Democratic crowd, two white men who could have been strong contenders have already stumbled their way out of the contest. Harris’ running mate, Gov. Tim Walz (D), has proven himself incompetent, to say the least. It wasn’t the least bit of help. In Minnesota, his vote totals continued to decline, from 54% when he was first elected governor to 52% for reelection to less than 51% in 2024. Meanwhile, California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D); The Los Angeles wildfires burned his future.

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) is the current betting favorite (inexplicably tied with Newsom), and is particularly benefiting from Walz’s failure. Many political analysts believe he should have been the vice presidential nominee. But Shapiro faces two difficult problems. First, the teachers unions don’t like him on school choice (not that Shapiro is in favor of school choice – he’s just not rabid enough against it for their taste). Second, it will test the level of anti-Semitism in the Democratic Party. It is possible that the party establishment will retreat from an internal civil war over Israeli-Palestinian relations.

The only other nationally known politician in the mix is ​​Pete Buttigieg. In 2020, he surprised in Iowa but didn’t do much after that. As Minister of Transport, he did not show up for work for months – and no one noticed. I firmly believe that the Biden White House gave Buttigieg a shot at replacing Harris by putting him over the top in the 2022 midterms, but it failed. It is remarkably unnoticeable.

And after him, there is an almost endless list of untested and unprepared people. But politics breeds illusions of grandeur, and the vacuum in Democratic circles invites more illusions than usual.

Among those who might work on identity politics, Democrats have done well with governors. This bodes well for Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D) and perhaps Maryland Governor Wes Moore (D). Sens. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) and Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) check multiple identity boxes as well.

Will Hakeem Jeffries use his leadership platform in the House of Representatives to launch a campaign? The first midterms are not good for the incumbent party, which makes a Democratic majority in the House a real possibility and a good selling point. Perhaps Senator Cory Booker (D.N.J.) will make another round; In fact, any Democratic senator under the age of 70 is in the mix.

Three other Democratic governors are on the wrong side of identity politics: Andy Beshear of Kentucky, JB Pritzker of Illinois, and Jared Polis of Colorado. Beshear has won several elections in conservative states, Pritzker has practically unlimited money, and Polis has taken a moderate path. In a party less focused on identity politics, Sens. Mark Kelly (D-Arizona) or Tim Kaine (D-Virginia) might try to run as winning moderates.

Interestingly, Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) is up for re-election in 2028. His iconoclasm, which impressed progressives in 2022, is now bittersweet for them, given his outspoken support for Israel and willingness to negotiate with Trump. Could a progressive primary challenge in Pennsylvania push him to run for president?

The problem for all the aspirants is the zombie candidate, Kamala Harris. If she wanted to run, it would be very difficult to dislodge her.

Democratic elites and betting markets have no enthusiasm for it at this point. Harris has the distinct air of a young player playing in a game in over her head. But the fact remains that millions of Democrats voted for her twice. It has a very high name recognition. Her support rate among Democrats is 89 percent.

She’s terrible off-script and doesn’t seem to have much of a belief system, other than standard progressive talking points. She did not have the courage or creativity to separate herself from Biden. Biden loyalists have treated her like trash since Election Day.

But these things can all work to her advantage. A mainstream progressive who can blame the disgraced Biden for his loss in 2024 could be powerful enough to fend off a horde of inexperienced challengers.

In 2021, I wrote that Democrats are stuck with Harris, like it or not. It’s now 2025, and nothing has changed.

Keith NaughtonHe is a co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm, and a former consultant to political campaigns in Pennsylvania.